Predicting post-closure water quality from paste backfill: Novel geochemical source term derivation for an underground nickel mine in Tanzania
Shameer Hareeparsad
Key words: paste backfill; geochemical characterization; source term; advection; diffusion; mine closure
Accurately predicting the geochemical behaviour of underground backfill is essential for designing effective closure strategies and reducing long-term water management risks. This case study describes a novel approach to predict geochemical source-terms for paste backfill in an underground nickel mining operation based in Tanzania, completed as part of a Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) assessment. The backfill material, referred to as paste aggregate fill (PAF), comprises sulphide-bearing tailings, crushed waste rock, process residues, and a slag-based cement binder with a process-derived binder aid. Source terms were derived to quantify post-closure solute mass loadings to groundwater, under submerged conditions, to inform predictive groundwater modelling and closure planning. A conceptual framework was developed to represent the flow and geochemical processes influencing solute release from the PAF, focusing on two mass transfer mechanisms: advection and diffusion. Laboratory testing provided the empirical basis for the modelling reducing the requirement to apply scaling factors. Modified triaxial permeability (MTP) tests were used to estimate advective porewater quality, while the Leaching Environmental Assessment Framework (LEAF) method was applied to derive diffusion coefficients. Source terms were generated for both long-term (base case) and initial flushing (upper case) conditions, with simplifying assumptions applied to address uncertainty and maintain conservatism. Results show that the PAF shows low hydraulic conductivity limiting advective mass transfer, high initial alkalinity, and a calcium–chloride dominated leachate. The upper-case scenario predicts elevated concentrations of certain metals, including copper, strontium, and sodium, during the early flushing period, with concentrations decreasing over time in line with ordered-rate kinetics. Diffusivity values are relatively low, with the highest observed for aluminium, cobalt, lead, and vanadium. This work demonstrates a novel, structured laboratory-informed approach to source term derivation for paste backfill, transferable to other mining operations requiring assessment of long- term water quality impacts from underground backfill disposal.